US Fed Cut Interest Rate by 25 BP as Expected, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, October 30, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $11,093.5/mt overnight. After moving sideways at the beginning of the session, copper prices rose to a high of $11,200/mt, then fell sharply, touching a low of $11,049/mt near the session's close, and finally settled at $11,090/mt, up 0.55%. Trading volume reached 29,000 lots, and open interest stood at 328,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 opened at 88,780 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 88,520 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward to a high of 89,270 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 89,130 yuan/mt, up 1.23%. Trading volume reached 109,000 lots, and open interest was 292,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On October 28, Southern Copper Corporation announced that construction progress at its Tía María copper mine project, located in the Arequipa region of southern Peru, has reached 23%. The total investment in the project is approximately $1.4 billion, with a designed annual copper production capacity of 120,000 mt. The company stated that construction is proceeding as planned, with production expected to commence in 2027. The Tía María project is a significant copper resource development in Peru but has faced multiple delays due to social and environmental controversies. Southern Copper emphasized that the project has made positive progress in communication with local communities and environmental protection measures to ensure its safe and sustainable implementation.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On October 29, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 130 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, with an average price at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 87,550 to 87,980 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper fell gradually from 88,120 yuan/mt to 87,690 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between a discount of C80 and C40 yuan/mt, and the import loss was nearly 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, as copper prices continue to rise, downstream purchasing sentiment remains focused on rigid demand. However, the widening spot discounts are prompting traders to consider purchases, and transaction volume is expected to improve slightly.
(2) Guangdong: On October 29, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 10 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 90 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 87,850 yuan/mt, down 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 87,770 yuan/mt, down 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices hovered at highs, downstream restocking willingness was low, and spot premiums only increased slightly.
(3) Imported copper: On October 29, warrant prices were $30-40/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; bill of lading (B/L) prices were $42-64/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at -$18/mt to -$4/mt, QP November, with the average price down $4/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late October and early November.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on October 29, the futures closing price was 87,870 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -60 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,400-78,600 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,299 yuan/mt, up 324 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,710 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that although September taxes have been paid, there is no specific reply yet on whether relevant policies will resume or continue. Coupled with the intraday surge in copper prices, orders for secondary copper rod enterprises remained weak, so these enterprises are not in a hurry to produce.
(5) Inventory: On October 28, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 775 mt to 135,350 mt; on October 29, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 101 mt to 35,745 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected, in line with market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. Although the probability of further rate cuts in December decreased, market sentiment remained relatively optimistic. On October 30 local time, President Xi Jinping and President Trump will meet in Busan, South Korea, boosting sentiment for eased Sino-US trade relations, which is favorable for copper prices. Additionally, major miners' copper production is expected to decline significantly, exacerbating the copper ore supply deficit, which also supports copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, high-quality copper and SX-EW copper supplies continued to decrease, and market supply tightened. Demand side, suppressed by high copper prices, market procurement sentiment showed no significant improvement. Overall, positive macro factors combined with tightening fundamental supply are expected to keep copper prices holding up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]